Training | 2010.08.27
Terror warning over radicalised prisoners
Up to 800 \'potentially violent radicals\' could be released from prisons in next five to 10 years, says thinktank
Britain faces a potential "new wave" of home-grown terrorist attacks as a result of an escalating rate of radicalisation of Muslims inside the prison system, according to a report published today by a leading defence and security thinktank.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says that up to 800 "potentially violent radicals" who have not been convicted of terrorist offences could be released from prisons in England and Wales over the next five to 10 years and will pose a significant challenge to the security services to identify them.
The estimate rests upon "prison probation sources" saying that one in 10 of the 8,000 Muslim prisoners in high security jails in England and Wales could be successfully targeted.
However, the Ministry of Justice disputed the figures in the report. It said last night: "The prison and probation service does not recognise the figure of 800 \'violent radicals\' referred to in the report, nor do we agree that jihadist radicalisation is taking place at a rapid rate.
"There are only 6,000 prisoners in the high security estate, most of whom are not Muslim. The figure of \'one in 10 of the 8,000 Muslims\' in the high security estate is therefore unrecognisable."
The report by Michael Clarke, the institute\'s director, and Valentina Soria says that the prisoners are potential recruits for a "new wave" of terrorism likely to involve a shift in tactics. They predict a move away from large-scale, co-ordinated bombings, which have needed considerable training and operational support, to the greater use of lone individuals carrying out smaller-scale random attacks against different targets.
"The spectre of terrorist attacks has receded from the public mind for the time being, yet more than any other country, the UK has the greatest to fear from home-grown terrorism," says their report. "Certainly, British security services are acutely aware of the possibilities for a wave of individual random attacks against different targets. Attacks on \'crowded places\' are near the top of the government\'s risk rankings over the next five years."
The report raises particular concerns about what is going on inside Britain\'s prison system. It stresses that only 23 of the 230 people convicted on terrorism or terrorism-related offences as a result of the first wave of jihadist attacks against Britain since 9/11 are currently serving life or indeterminate sentences. More than a third were sentenced to between eight months and four years as they were convicted of less serious non-terrorist charges and are now being released or are soon to be released. Probation sources confirmed to the Guardian yesterday that they expected the number of such prisoners who have been released to pass the 100 mark next April. They said that six had already been recalled to prison for further offences, including one who had been trying to get hold of a gun.
The RUSI report argues that the experience of Northern Ireland shows it is more likely that the majority of those will remain committed to their cause and may serve as a source of motivation to others, albeit in clandestine ways. It says there is evidence of jihadist radicalisation taking place at a rapid rate, especially within the eight high-security prisons.
Clarke and Soria suggest that the emergence of new al-Qaida leaders such as Anwar al-Awlaki demonstrates an increase in the use of more individuals, carrying out attacks on a smaller scale. This new breed of jihadists have only tenuous links to any major terrorist organisation and receive little training and few resources, increasing the difficulty for the police and intelligence services in tracking and intercepting them.
RUSI said last night it stood by its 800 estimate but accepted the figure of 8,000 Muslim prisoners was across the prison system, not for those just in high security jails.
The justice ministry said the holding of extremist views and the process of radicalisation were found in wider society, not just jails. "The presumption that holding radical or extreme views necessarily leads to violent extremist behaviour and criminality should be challenged. All our high security prisons operate enhanced monitoring and intelligence-gathering on those convicted or suspected of involvement in terrorism or extremism, and staff are trained to recognise and deal with behaviours which are of concern," it said.
The ministry added that a dedicated expert unit within the Prison Service existed to tackle the risk of radicalisation posed by those offenders with violent extremist views, and those who might attempt to improperly influence others.
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/a[...]lised-prisoners-terror-warning
