Events | 2010.03.09
Is the UUP decision to vote against devolving policing and justice powers really a tactical blunder? | Henry McDonald
While the Ulster Unionists\' decision to resist calls to back the transfer of policing and justice powers has been called \'a colossal mistake\', it may actually appeal to many unionist voters
There is an Ulster Scots word that perfectly sums up the psyche of the Ulster Presbyterian.
"Thran" translates as stubborn or obstinate and neatly encapsulates the attitude of that tribe at the edge of the union in all matters including politics.
The current stance of the Ulster Unionist party in ignoring the pleas from David Cameron, Hillary Clinton and even George Bush that they back today\'s vote on devolving policing and justice powers is a perfect illustration of "thran".
The UUP\'s defiance on the question of support for the transfer of these powers is portrayed by Ian Paisley as nothing less than a "colossal mistake". The Democratic Unionist party\'s former leader accused the UUP of strategic ineptitude during a meeting in Ballymena last night during which his local party anointed his son, Ian Jr, as his successor for the North Antrim Westminster seat he has held for nearly four decades.
But is the UUP\'s decision to hold out against the advice of Tory central office and the current and former White House really such a tactical blunder?
Sir Reg Empey first indicated that his party would not support the vote to create a justice ministry in the Guardian last month, when he said the UUP would only back the deal if other concessions were made.
The UUP leader concentrated on the issue of education and in particular the need to clear up the mess over transferring children at the age of 11 to secondary and grammar schools. The inability of the four-party coalition at Stormont to find a compromise on the abolition of the 11-plus was a glaring example of how dysfunctional the devolved government was, Empey pointed out.
Although the retention of the 11-plus is popular among the unionist middle classes, the real rewards for the UUP from that electorate will flow from their "thranness" in the face of pressure. The Ulster Presbyterian mindset is moulded by a tenacious individualism and a dedication to personal conscience.
The intervention of the former US president, metropolitan Westminster types such as David Cameron and a lobby of Irish-Americans in the policing and justice debate over recent days will be perceived by many in the unionist community as a bullying pincer movement. To stand up to this kind of global pressure will appeal to many unionist voters.
In key constituencies the UUP is targeting in the general election, such as Strangford and Upper Bann, there are significant sections of the unionist electorate who do not like the idea of outsiders dictating what the leaders they elect should do. Although he or she cannot ignore the exterior world, the "thran" unionist will admire any leader that resists such pressure.
Of course there will be a downside not only for the UUP over this stance but for unionism in general. The acrimony over the UUP\'s decision not to back the DUP\'s move to devolve policing and judicial powers deals a mortal blow to the concept of a pan-unionist election pact.
An alliance between the UUP and DUP could have possibly delivered two extra Westminster seats – South Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone – for unionism. The fallout from today\'s split between the two unionist parties makes that election deal far less likely.
Last week a senior DUP source told the Guardian that in the event of the UUP not supporting the creation of a justice ministry, Peter Robinson, Northern Ireland\'s first minister, will go to the country.
Robinson would probably let the assembly fall, which in turn would result in Stormont elections possibly on the same day as the general election. Over the last few days that DUP threat to hit the electoral nuclear button has receded in all likelihood because the UUP has called their rivals\' bluff.
Even the looming possibility of a second election in the next few weeks did not intimidate the UUP. The party that looked dead in the water a year ago has suddenly opened up a space for a comeback.
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/[...]ansfer-powers-tactical-mistake
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