Business | 2009.12.12
X Factor finale gives ITV a bonanza
As the singers prepare to battle for the crown, the real winners will be Simon Cowell and an ailing broadcaster that could have its most lucrative weekend ever
The days when watching TV was a shared national experience, with audiences in tens of millions, are supposed to be over. But last night the battle which saw young singers Olly Murs and Joe McElderry successfully voted through to tonight\'s X Factor final proved it is still possible to rewrite the rules.
The two-night weekend final of the ITV1 talent show is expected to attract around 20 million viewers a night – an extraordinary figure that compares favourably with the channel\'s Saturday night glory days in the 70s, well before the advent of multi-channel broadcasting.
The decision of ITV bosses to milk The X Factor \'s popularity, even though the show is in its sixth series, by adding a longer Sunday show to the format of the final, will allow up to 90 commercials to be screened across four hours of prime-time coverage this weekend. That should translate into an income of around £18m just from the television advertising – before calculating the sums generated by the premium line phone vote, at 80p a pop. This will be a vital injection of funds for ITV in difficult times.
Tonight\'s two-hour show, in which either McElderry or Murs will be crowned champion, will go head to head with BBC1\'s Sports Personality of the Year . It will then neatly segue into I Dreamed a Dream: The Susan Boyle Story , which chronicles the rise to international stardom of the Scottish singer who was runner-up in ITV1\'s Britain\'s Got Talent this year.
Prince Harry was in the audience last night with girlfriend Chelsy Davy, and even the politicians have been at battle stations over the show this weekend. The foreign secretary, David Miliband, is still rooting on Twitter for Cheryl Cole\'s protege, the 18-year-old McElderry, who comes from close to his South Shields constituency. Another contender for the Labour leadership, Jon Cruddas, was disappointed last night. He had been campaigning for the Dagenham diva Stacey Solomon, who lives in his constituency.
"Everyone around is supporting Stacey," he said yesterday, hours before she was eliminated. "We will be on the edge of our seats and I shall certainly be voting for her. As a backbencher, I have more time to devote to agitating on Stacey\'s behalf, but I do hope David has not devoted too much time to tweeting in support of Joe. It is good, of course, that he is supporting his local boy, but there are some quite pressing international affairs he should be attending to."
Media analysts predict this weekend will prove the most lucrative in ITV\'s history. So far, the biggest viewing figures for The X Factor were garnered on the night that 16.4 million tuned in to witness the fate of the Irish twins John and Edward Grimes, better known as Jedward. This beat the 14 million who saw Alexandra Burke sail to victory last year. The strange appeal of Jedward has already given ITV1 its biggest viewing figures for last month, when 14.4 million watched in amazement as the teenagers ousted Welsh singer Lucie Jones from the show on 8 November.
These high ratings helped the channel last month, when BBC1, BBC2, Channel 4 and Five each posted their lowest November audience share for years. ITV1, in contrast, managed an all-day share that was its best November performance since 2006. The popularity of ITV1\'s I\'m A Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here! has also paid dividends. The ratings for the jungle reality series were the best since 2005.
This weekend affords a glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel for the ailing broadcaster, which is still wrestling with falling viewing figures and advertising income. A year ago, ITV executives were braced for a 20% plunge in revenues as advertising dropped off the scale. But thanks to The X Factor and Simon Cowell\'s other monster hit, Britain\'s Got Talent , revenues could now fall by only 12%.
The channel is thought to be able to charge as much as £250,000 for 30 seconds of advertising airtime on The X Factor tonight. "If you\'re not on X Factor this weekend, you won\'t get your message across," said George Constantinou of Starcom MediaVest.
More than 8 million people voted in last year\'s final, and phone lines are expected to be busier this time as people now have a whole day to make their choice. This should generate about £1.5m from the premium line vote, while the show\'s sponsorship deal with Talk Talk is estimated to be worth £500,000 for the final. When these sums are added to advertising from the X Factor website, income for the weekend may pass £20m.
Sadly for ITV, much of this will go into Cowell\'s pocket. As creator of the X Factor format, he combines his role as the show\'s judge with a position at the head of Syco, the firm that owns the rights to both The X Factor and Britain\'s Got Talent .
He is also about to renegotiate his deal with the channel, worth £20m over three years. He takes a share of phone vote profits, and his record company has first refusal on the stars.
If the favourite, McElderry, wins – he is 9-2 on, with Murs 3-1 – he will release a cover of Miley Cyrus\'s ballad "The Climb", which is almost certain to be the Christmas No 1.
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/2009/dec/13/x-factor-itv-simon-cowell
