Technology | 2010.03.03
Details of Ashcroft's sophisticated target seat operation revealed | Allegra Stratton
Tories combining same sort of targeting Labour used in 1997 with extensive YouGov polling of groups as large as 10,000
The level of sophistication behind Lord Ashcroft\'s "target seat operation" is revealed in an extensive article for Wired magazine, which includes the man once in charge of building up the Tories\' new media campaign, Francis Maude, saying he "isn\'t sure" whether the technology will be ready in time for the election.
Ashcroft runs the Conservative party\'s target seat operation, which the party hopes will secure them the necessary swings within constituencies they need to win even when the view of the whole country may suggest a narrower poll lead, which might result in a hung parliament.
Prospect journalist James Crabtree shows how Ashcroft has diagnosed the party\'s targets. The Conservatives are using an updated form of Labour\'s Excalibur machine which they used to get to power in 1997 — this one called Merlin — but now combining the targeting of Excalibur with extensive polling of groups as large as 10,000 done by YouGov enabling the party to rapidly produce pieces of literature to snare wavering groups of voters.
Merlin allows the party to combine information about a local area gathered from canvass sheets with Mosaic — a subtle classification of voter groups developed by the research firm Experian, which gives a detailed breakdown of 65 consumer "tribes" such as "cafe bar professionals" and "high spending families". Crabtree writes: "Those socio-demographic categories let candidates see who lives in their patch simply by typing in a postcode".
"A poll might seek out the views of a Mosaic group — say, "overstetched young aspirers" — living in marginal seats in northern England. If this group proved sceptical about Conservative policies on policing, the party could respond, using Merlin, by sending a letter on Tory crime policy only to that group."
The Tories are also planning to make the day of the general election "full hand-held integration". Crabtree writes: "No more print-outs to take door to door or voter lists to review, just party workers keeping CCHQ [Conservative headquarters] updated in real time about voter turnout and key seat performances using dedicated BlackBerry-like devices."
However on this, Maude — now the shadow Cabinet Office minister — admits he "isn\'t sure" if such plans will be ready in time; Merlin\'s rollout has been "difficult".
"Some of those who have used it for campaigning say the otherwise powerful system suffers \'operational stability\' issues (meaning sometimes it doesn\'t work at all). Others worry that the party lacks the statistical know-how to make sense of its powerful tool. But on election day, it will still let the Tories target marginal voters in must-win seats more precisely than ever before."
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/[...]t-target-seat-tories-operation
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