Quality | 2009.07.29
Rain puts dampers on 'barbecue summer'
The Met Office updates forecast and warns of unsettled weather for the holidays
It always seemed a little too good to be true, especially for anyone who has endured a beach holiday huddled under an umbrella. This year was to be different, we were told. A "barbecue summer" – from no less an authority than the Met Office itself.
Yesterday, though, the Met Office conceded what Britons have seen with their own eyes over the last few weeks: apart from a fortnight in June, the summer has been more soggy than sizzling. And it\'s not likely to get much better in August, a prediction that will disappoint, if not entirely surprise, millions of "staycationers" who booked a holiday in the UK to enjoy the sunshine and beat the recession.
A Met Office forecaster, Helen Chivers, said today the summer was still on track to be slightly warmer than usual, with average or slightly above average rainfall, and showed no sign of the washouts witnessed in 2007 and 2008. But there were no more promises of a hot summer. Instead, Chivers used more familiar language to describe what the UK can expect in the coming weeks. "The weather will remain unsettled … with similar patterns of sunshine and showers, with occasional longer spells of rain," she said.
She denied that the Met Office had actually predicted a scorcher, although she did admit the phrase "barbecue summer" originated with the forecasters.
The Met Office had merely predicted the summer would be warmer than average, she said. "June was very sunny, with temperatures reaching 32 degrees by the end of the month. Wimbledon saw hardly any rain, and Glastonbury was not a washout this year, but people tend to forget these things."
None of which will provide much consolation for people living in the north-west, which is expected to get the worst of the rain at the beginning of August.
The Met Office would not be drawn on anything too specific beyond 11 August, leaving a glimmer of hope that a late burst of sunny days could be in store. "We could get all the expected rainfall in the next couple of weeks, and then nothing for the rest of August – no one knows," she said.
The circumspection was certainly in contrast to the optimistic long range forecasts made in the spring.
Back in April, the Met Office head of forecasting, Brian Golding, admitted that long-term forecasting had its limitations, but also seemed assured of the quality of the office\'s predictions, saying the Met Office had got it right in the past.
"Seasonal forecasting is a difficult thing to do and this places some limitations on our forecasts," he said. "Our predictions for last autumn, winter and spring have all given accurate advice, giving more confidence in our latest summer forecast."
Yesterday Philip Eden, vice-president of the Royal Meteorological Society, criticised the Met Office for using the media-friendly phrase "barbecue summer".
He said: "This is not a problem with forecasting – it is a problem around spin. It is absolutely right that the Met Office is investing in experimental forecasting. But when I first heard the phrase \'barbecue summer\' I groaned because I knew it would come back to bite them."
Most people took weather predictions with a pinch of salt, he said. "I think the general public realise there is a margin of error, the weather not living up to their expectations is another good reason to grumble."
The prospect of more rain in the next few weeks will be particularly unwelcome to the thousands of holidaymakers expected to stay in Britain. Bob Atkinson, travel expert at travelsupermarket.com, estimated there had been a 25% surge in people booking UK holidays. "This country has a lot to offer, so they will still have a good time, but they may have to settle for crap weather."
The Met Office has had to revise its forecast on previous occasions. It originally predicted that last year\'s summer – which featured strong winds, little sunshine and heavy rain – would be warmer than average , with rainfall near or slightly above average. It became one of the wettest summers on record.
In 2007, the Met Office said the summer would be warmer than normal, giving no indication of the deluge to come. In fact, temperatures were below average and heavy rain and floods ensured it was the wettest summer for England and Wales since 1912, with thousands left homeless by floods in much of Yorkshire, the Midlands and the West Country.
Golding admitted the limitations of the forecasting system: "Last year\'s forecast did not predict an exceptional summer. The seasonal forecasting techniques are not capable at present of predicting exceptional conditions."
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/jul/29[...]-weather-forecast-rain-holiday
