Quality | 2009.05.23
Only Alan Johnson can prevent Labour catastrophe | Polly Toynbee
Labour is the heavy loser in the expenses scandal. A new leader might not win an election, but at least avert annihilation
This weekend MPs creep back to their constituencies, traumatised, shamed, afraid. Stepping out on doorsteps with an election weeks away, will voters give them the rollocking bollocking that Margaret Beckett and Menzies Campbell faced on Question Time ? The innocent quake along with the shifty.
Some will look their local activists in the eye, wondering if murderous deselection is in their minds. It\'s not over yet, not by a long chalk. When every detail is published officially, local papers will seize on each MP\'s wooden spoon and plastic bag, many as yet unscrutinised. Both Cameron and Brown have devised systems that ensure all this will be regurgitated when various committees report back. Incumbency has become an electoral encumbrance.
Labour has been the heavy loser in this horrible saga. Better is expected of them by their incandescent poorer constituents – and they are the government. They had the power and authority to reform every aspect of parliamentary custom and practice, but – like so much else left undone – they didn\'t, and many took the money. Once the party of polished spin, they forgot the cardinal rule for all in the public eye: do nothing you would squirm to see reported. How could anyone claim for fines for not paying council tax? Drip, drip, there will be more.
For nearly a year Gordon Brown has seen this death truck thundering towards him down the political motorway. This story speaks eloquently about his indecisive and ineptly tactical leadership. For all that time he has done nothing to limit the damage of this inevitable crash. Months ago he could have stamped on abuses, ordered his own MPs to pay back their most egregious claims with no more money for furniture or food and, as Nick Clegg suggests , return all property-dealing profits to the state. Instead there were absurdly doomed attempts to use the law to stop disclosure.
Long ago Brown should have called in Cameron and Clegg to suggest that, for all their sakes, they agree a new system. That required him willingly and generously to support any better scheme they chose to offer, so long as all left the room in agreement. Instead, so characteristically, he played politics by slapping down his own take-it-or-leave-it plan, deliberately goading them to walk out, which of course they did. With these bungled tactics he hoped to show the other leaders up as anti-reformers, but as he leapt on to YouTube to seize the initiative he fell flat on his face .
Even after that calamity, at Tuesday\'s political cabinet, with blood already on the highway, the prime minister\'s indecision was terminal and fatal. I am told a leading cabinet minister gave him a strong and detailed expenses reform plan, with a script for presenting it. But it sat on his desk for many days. He couldn\'t make up his mind; he was "reflecting" on it. Since nothing is proposed to cabinet without Brown\'s prior support, the plan was never presented, the discussion was diffuse and nothing was resolved. But when Cameron announced his press conference for a few hours later, it was plain he had a plan of his own. So Harriet Harman was sent out in a hurry to present a plan the cabinet hadn\'t discussed.
Cameron triumphed: it hardly mattered what he said or if his plan made sense – it too may unravel – when he showed himself forcefully decisive in a crisis and his words answered the wrathful spirit of the times: "Politicians have done things that are unethical and wrong. I don\'t care if they were within the rules – they were wrong." Compare and contrast that with Gordon Brown days later : "Where there is irregularity it has to be dealt with." This is the mindset and the language of a bunker under siege where dwindling trusted advisers lose touch with the daylight world outside.
Will ministers and backbenchers stiffen their spines and tell their leader to go? Rumblings suggest they may, as the latest poll has Labour at 19%, neck and neck with Ukip for fourth place. MPs with majorities of less than 10,000 will tremble at their 4 June results. There are few Brownites left, only MPs anxiously calculating if the upheaval of regicide might precipitate a worse disintegration or whether Alan Johnson might save a hundred extra seats and restore Labour\'s political verve. "If the execution was swift, they would do much better with Alan Johnson," says the Ipsos Mori pollster Ben Page. Labour would still almost certainly lose, he says, but not the catastrophic loss that has some Westminster doomsters asking if "the Labour brand" is dead.
What could Johnson do? As a politically wise man around whom the cabinet could gather, he has the manner and warmth to admit Labour errors. He would need to apologise in language that resonates with the current whirlwind of fury, but it\'s surprisingly easy to say an authentic sorry if it\'s meant
It may be too late for mighty swerves in political direction before next year\'s election, but it\'s easy to sweep away the self-laid landmines in Labour\'s path. No ID cards, but free passports for all instead. Devise a better plan for the Post Office – Johnson knows it well – and abandon anything that\'s more trouble and cost than it\'s worth. Ed Miliband\'s good green policy deserves a high profile, only achieved by revisiting Brown\'s disastrous third runway decision. Postpone Trident and open a public debate on nuclear arms and Britain\'s future place in the EU and the world. On inequality, set up a social justice commission to map a long-term path to fairer shares in pay, wealth and tax.
In 12 years Labour has never debated these fundamentals: no wonder it lost its bearings to such an extent that Liam Byrne\'s big new idea last week called Labour "the radical centre". For now, focus on the million under-24s out of work, joined by 600,000 leaving education this summer. Johnson may not win, but he would bring back Labour voters – and maybe many others when faced by the meaning of Cameron\'s austerity.
Some fear a change of leader would only sharpen the Jacobin scythes of those demanding a general election now to throw out their sitting MP. But if Brown is made to walk the plank in June, the arrival of a fresh face, clean hands and a new narrative would let Johnson claim some time to make his changes first. This is Labour\'s last chance.
For more information, please visit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/15/brown-election
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